Empirical cross-venue microstructure pulling live Kalshi and Polymarket orderbook data across 16 paired markets, measuring spreads, depth, quote stability, and executable arb after fees. Finding: no takeable cross-venue arb at accessible fees; the venues differ structurally in how they hold depth.
Agent-based simulator stress-testing AMM, CLOB, and hybrid derivatives venues against event-driven Bayesian trader populations. Headline result: the hybrid mechanism halves agent-to-agent trade volume across every slice because the passive LP layer absorbs noise flow that would otherwise force informed traders into direct adverse selection.
Permissioned ERC-3643 SPV token on Ethereum + LS-LMSR AMM on Base for price discovery on event-triggered real-world assets. Includes a seed-and-retreat cold-start mechanism, validated via a ~3,900-cell multi-agent parameter sweep showing ≥97% convergence to true probability under credentialed-dominant agent mixes.